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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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